Toby Lindsay .org.uk

Hey, so I’m doing some teaching today – looking at the impact of exchange rate variations on global business strategy and…..

It’s not my area of expertise.

Nor interest.

Which makes for harder work….

Except – it’s fascinating!!! Not least because at Regency College, at the height of the Euro’s strength against the pound, we priced our courses at 1-1 Euro to Sterling, when calculating our Euro sales price.

Made for an attractive and highly competitive sales proposition however, the rates changed and fast and we suffered a 13% (by my very rough “wow we never thought about this before” calculations) impact on our European income.

Which may have been significant…

Difficult to say and a thorough analysis, will need to take into account a broader range of factors, to determine the impact of the decisions we made.

However, what I am certain of, is the decision was made without any understanding of, or thought given to, the impact of possible exchange rate movements and fluctuations. Given the fact we were running an export business we maybe should have been asking some different questions!

Live and learn.

When running a business (or life), if you work out and understand what you don’t know, won’t pay attention to and simply regard as boring/dull/irrelevant, you can then look again, or get someone else to.

Chances are – you are missing something.

And the answer is – I’m not, 100%, certainly and solidly sure. Which I want to be, or at least have a well thought through and reasoned critique… I’ve read a few – probably best return to my notes!

See, I was reading Weick last night on emergent change, something I’m very interested in and… The way he writes seemed to suggest “emergent” and “planned” change were things that could exist in separation and be identified. Once that is done, it is then clear how to proceed.

Which is not good enough really – the way I’m thinking about how things actually happen – doesn’t allow for clear set diagnostics like this. At this level complexity = complex adaptive systems, which I think is still limited by the failings of systems thinking.

Which are????

Aha – exactly, more work required!

As a starter for ten I’d say limited by; myths of control, illusions of stability and actuality and fundamentaly taking an essentialist world view.

However, it’s getting clearer to me that to develop method for working from a perspective of complexity, means going back to some basic paradigm stuff and then working from there. I’m keen to see where that takes me as opposed to remaining essentially grounded in systems thinking orthodoxies and trying to add on “complexity” influenced practice.

Any thoughts???

I’m preparing for a seminar on strategy this morning, and it is a fine morning and a fine subject, I think! We’ll be looking at Porter, some case studies and all of that jazz….

Strategy….. It’s very important for your business to have one.

Simple. If you can answer “yes” to the question, “do you have a strategy?”, then that’s great and if the answer is “no”, then poor you…

I’ve been thinking a bit about what a “strategy” is. The way we sometimes describe it, and “its” importance you’d think a strategy was something that will come into work for you at night, keep watch on areas that you have forgotten, were too busy to attend to, or were simply unaware of, and generally act as a supreme guardian of your business and its future.

Cool. Though a strategy doesn’t act, does it? It isn’t another pair of hands…. There is a very real danger that a “strategy” is something to “have”, and then, what really happens is we go back to work and get on with the job… I spoke to someone yesterday who was sent on a “strategic development day” and it was “nice to get out and talk to some different people, great to have a day away from the office”. There is real value in both those activities…. However,

Businesses (in my opinion) with great “strategies”, are businesses where people who are empowered to act, have a lot of exploratory and expansive conversations about them, the business, the circumstances within which the business operates, their desires for the business and how they might achieve them. These conversations are informed by the values and long term ideas about what the organisation can/might and should achieve…. And these conversations lead to action.

Which in turn is evaluated in a “strategic conversation”, critically, reflectively and with evidence, to see whether or not the actions, really are helping us achieve what we want and need to…

And so it goes.

Happy New Year!!!!!    

I hope you had a good one – I did, very much so, and feel great about 2012, which is nice!

A quick word on 2011 – it was tough! And I suppose good, lots of learning – though at one point my wife did say “if you say anything about learning I’m going to f@#!*ng kill you”!!!

She’s a wise woman.

Our friend and business partner Seamus Murphy, died in August of last of year and two months later we closed Regency College, the business we co-founded. How inter-related these two events are I’m not entirely sure, though both were deeply sad.

Closing Regency was tough and right, thankfully all the students were taken care of via English UK and the liquidators managed redundancy payments for staff.

Starting the New Year without Regency in my life is peculiar and not at all bad. I have learnt loads, have moved on from something which was painful and simply hard and have a huge amount to look forward to and be thankful for.

So let’s go!!!!

Here’s to a wonderful year, farewell everbody and have a ball!

Peace,

Toby

Meaning cold!!!

It’s hot, really really hot and I needed to get that Monkfish off the front page. Damn he’s scary, right!?!

Not that I think the world economy is about to break into a late summer’s daze. I really don’t think any of us knows what’s going to happen and some of the possible scenarios, many in fact, take us into uncharted territory. Could be scary, could be exciting, could be very significant and move us somewhere where humanity manages it’s activities a little more thoughtfully.

I hope so.

Whatever’s coming next, here, and now, it is a lovely day.

Said Robert Peston two minutes ago on nightsnewsight, he was talking about how the G20 leaders are working… Or not, he’s been with them all week and has seen nothing, absolutely nothing that suggest any innovation, difference or creativity in their relationships, actions and process.

Now then… What are they doing?

Thinking about all the data, curves, fiscal analysis tools and so on and so on – those “tools and techniques” which did nothing to keep us out of this pending disaster. Talking abstracts, about, “what Greece could do”, who is this Greece, eh?

And who is working, with the people, to get them doing and being, together, better.

Seems like no-one.

The economy is close to the edge. And there are no new loud and public ideas  coming through and no decent thinking about what to do.

Why?

How are you doing? Well, I hope.

I’m great, so so busy!

A while back, when the days were drifty and open, “I must enjoy this time because it will be different soon”…

Well it is. And some…

We had such a great summer, first time off, for me, in August for nine years. Fantastic, lazy days with family on the beach and in the garden. Mountains, sister’s fantastic wedding and a farewell to a great and significant friend. Lots of shoots springing up and new work to do and then holiday ended, September arrives and….

Boom!

It’s all happening folks

And that’s just great, I’ll fill you in for sure – some of it’s been tough, some exciting and some really quite edgy at times. Always like an edge though, don’t you

So much to learn and do and be appreciative of. Though new style facebook isn’t part of that… I don’t like it. At all.

Most of the rest, awesome!

Take care, see you soon, T x

“Since you’ve been gone things seem a lot more, mmm, uncertain”.

Was a comment made to me at lunch the other day and it got me thinking.

Thinking about leadership, uncertainty and getting close to the edge of chaos. The edge of chaos being a fascinating, turbulent, anxious and exciting place.

Also known as the home of novelty, creation and innovation.

The home of successful, dynamic and groovy organisations…

Or so I would have you believe (I certainly do ).

My sense is that people in organisation often, (always?) collaborate to allow for a leader, and this leader is significant. The leader provides vision, direction, has access to the greatest amount of knowledge about the organisation and then allows for certain amounts to be shared as, and when, appropriate.

The leader offers others, amongst other things, a valuable fiction, that of direction, of certainty and of stability. To what extent is this true? Who knows? How many organisations, have found they have been rocked, shocked and maybe destroyed, by the unpredictable, the unforeseen, something not in the plan!!!

I know a few.

Conversely, how many organisations have been made, shaped and experienced sudden and great growth, by that which is unforeseen, unknowable and emergent?

Though this is more often than not, due to great leadership, right?

I guess what I’m saying is, a function of leadership, often, is containment. Containment of the anxiety caused by the very real circumstance of not knowing. Not knowing what the future holds, and not knowing what the results of activity will be. And what I’m also saying is, the provision of certainty, is a fiction, and, a valuable one. It allows us to act and act well.

Anxiety is interference and interference hampers performance. Too much anxiety leads to fear, and fear to paralysis, and paralysis is not good.

However, when containment is high, what do we loose?

Really strong, certain and visionary leadership has a cost. Consider how we learn…

Through experience, raising awareness, acceptance and the ability to choose freely and explore the unknown. If we allow, encourage and enable, total belief in the fiction of certainty, we look elsewhere for direction, and loose the freedom to act and develop.

My view is that with a strong leader gone, anxiety goes up and people in organisation may well feel uncertain, anxious and a sense of chaos. What also increases, is the richness of opportunity for exploration, development and achievement.

With support, understanding and reflection, people can take risks, act into the unknown and develop a leadership culture, throughout the organisation, that embraces, accepts and leverages uncertainty, for the benefit of all.